by Zero Hedge

Democrat’s odds in the November elections are plummeting fast. Energy, crime, and inflation are three reasons why…

White House Press Secretary tries to defend Biden’s energy policy. Image from Tweet below.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre says White House isn’t trying to put oil companies ‘out of business’

There’s a doctored YouTube video showing the Press Secretary walking out after a question by Peter Doocy, White House correspondent for Fox News.

There was no need to doctor it, the clip speaks for itself.

Video Exchange

Peter Doocy: You’re asking oil companies to further lower gas prices. What makes you think that they are going to listen to an administration that is ultimately trying to put them out of business? 

Karine Jean-Pierre: How is the administration trying to put them out of business? 

Peter Doocy: Well, they produce fossil fuels and the president says he wants to end fossil fuels. 

Karine Jean-Pierre: So look. You kind of asked this question yesterday and here’s where we would say US oil production is up and on track to reach a record high next year. ….

Questions Abound

  • If oil production is at a record high, why are high prices the oil industry’s fault? 
  • If oil production is at a record high, what about Biden’s pledge to kill the industry? 

The answer to the first question has to do with refining capacity, regulations and Biden’s threat to kill fossil fuels.

Karine never addressed Doocy’s question. She made a disingenuous reply, never answering the question.

Here’s a third video that explains.

Biden’s Oil Price Machinations

Please consider the WSJ article Biden’s Oil Price Machinations.

Three weeks before Election Day, Mr. Biden is ordering 15 million more barrels released from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to reduce gasoline prices.

The new releases are a sign of political desperation. Crude price climbed after OPEC+ this month announced a two million barrels a day cut in production. 

The Administration said Wednesday it may continue releases as long as “conditions”—i.e., political conditions—require, but this is unsustainable. The SPR has fallen by about 210 million barrels since last fall. The Administration says the 400 million or so barrels that remain are “more than ready to respond to energy security needs today.” That’s also far from clear.

One reason is that the Administration is fast depleting the medium-sour grade crude in the reserve that is most useful to U.S. refineries. Much of what remains is a light-sweet crude produced from shale, much of which gets exported. Future releases could compete with U.S. shale in the tight global refining market and even discourage investment in shale production.

A true national emergency could also fast deplete the reserve. That’s why previous Presidents performed only three emergency releases: Operation Desert Storm in 1991 (17.3 million barrels), Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (20.8 million), and the Libya oil disruptions in 2011 (30.6 million). Though prices exceeded $90 a barrel from 2011 to 2014, Barack Obama didn’t resort to emergency drawdowns to reduce gas prices.

The Administration now says it plans to encourage “near-term production” by announcing its “intent” to repurchase oil for the reserve when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil falls to $67 to $72 a barrel. Who knows when this will happen since the Saudis have indicated their intent to keep prices around $90 to $100 a barrel.

We’ve been writing for months that Mr. Biden could deflate oil prices by giving a simple speech declaring an end to his political war on fossil fuels. Instead he resorts to gimmicks like the SPR releases and cozies up to dictators. Hours after OPEC announced its production cut, news leaked that the White House plans to ease sanctions on Venezuela to liberate its oil production.

Markets are smarter than Administration officials think, and so are voters.

Hypocritical Message So Contorted Everyone Can See It 

It’s clear the SPR drawdown is for political purposes. 

It’s equally clear Biden wants to shut down the industry while blaming them for lack of production. Meanwhile, the White House press secretary is bragging about record production.  

The Journal accurately comments voters are smarter than the administration. Independent voters upset over abortion policy are now coming to grips with Democrat policies on energy, education, and inflation. 

Polls Surge to Republicans

538 Election Odds 2022-10-22

How the House Forecast Has Changed 

538 House Election Odds 2022-10-22

How the Senate Forecast Has Changed 

538 Senate Election Odds 2022-10-22

Senate Who’s Ahead 

538 Senate Election Odds by State 2022-10-22

Arizona is a lost cause. Control of the Senate will come down to Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. 

Republicans could easily have won all four but selected weak Trump-backed candidates in all four states instead. 

Despite Trump, the Republicans may pull this off. 

I had Nevada in the Republican column long ago. 538 just recently flipped.

Concern in Pennsylvania is well-founded. Even Republican pollster Trafalgar still has Pennsylvania in the Democrat Column.

Which Polls 538 Pennsylvania 

Momentum is shifting rapidly, but if you are a Trafalgar fan, odds still favor Fetterman IF the election were today. 

But the election is not today.

Which Polls 538 Georgia 

Once again, the Republican, Walker is closing the gap. But once again Trafalgar has the Democrat ahead.

Georgia is more complex because Libertarian Chase Oliver is also on the ballot. He is pulling about 3%. That’s tiny but large enough to tip the scales. 

In Georgia, the winner has to get more than 50% otherwise the top two will square off in a special election. 

As it stands, neither Walker nor Warnock is likely to win a majority. That means there would be a runoff.

PredictIt Senate Odds  

PredictIt does not reflect what betters think would happen now but what will happen on election day, Tuesday, November 8, 2022.

Momentum is clearly in Republican’s favor. The backlash over abortions has shifted to inflation, energy, crime, and education policies.

But even assuming a Nevada Senate flip for Republicans, they still need retain Pennsylvania or flip Georgia to win control. 

Georgia is somewhat of a wildcard. There’s highly likely to be a runoff. Can Walker top 50 percent in a runoff? 

Right now, my guess is yes, if for no other reason than Democrats are increasingly likely to be demoralized after losing control of the House.  

Regardless, Biden will be a lame duck for the next two years other than damage by decree, which could still be substantial as budget-busting student debt cancellation proves.

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